Saturday, February 26, 2005


Oscar Predictions.

I've already posted my thoughts on the best and worst movies of 2004 in a series of posts that can be found starting here.

But since the big night's Sunday, I figure it's time for me to run down my predictions.

I'm not going to hit every category here, just some of the big ones. Yeah, when my buddy Mike and I watch the Oscars we bet on every award, but a lot of them you probably don't have an opinion on (Quick: who here can tell me the difference between Best Sound Editing & Best Sound Mixing? Without looking it up?).

Plus, some categories I can't choose without watching the awards. Case in point? Documentary Short Subject. Every year, we see the same nominees:
-- Disabled Children
-- Old Black Southerners
-- Old Holocaust Survivors
-- Black & White Sports Footage Involving Disabled Black Holocaust Children Survivors
Basically, with any documentaries or short features we need to see the short clip they run (is it just me, or are those clips getting shorter every year?), and then judge the level of applause the film gets. That's when Mike and I bet.

And that's when Mike's wife Jessica usually ends up winning.

Hey, we love movies-- we just don't seem to get movie politics as well as we should.

Anyways, without further adoo-dee-doo, here are my choices for who will win, along with my opinion on who *should* win if I were in charge of the process.

Please note: in the latter category I've restrained myself to only the movies and people that were nominated, which means that Paul Giamatti, Anchorman, and the 2004 films of Ms. Jenna Jameson are all off the table.

As a refresher, all the nominees can be found here.

Best Picture
What will win: The Aviator (which, truth be told, will be a bit of an upset over Million Dollar Baby)
What should win: Sideways

Best Director
Who will win: Martin Scorsese
Who should win: Martin Scorsese (FYI, splitting the Best Picture & Director award is virtually unheard of, but if any category will change it'll be Best Picture, with Scorsese taking Director and Million Dollar Baby taking picture)

Best Actor
Who will win: Jamie Foxx
Who should win since Paul Giamatti wasn't nominated: Don Cheadle

Best Actress
Who will win: Hilary Swank
Who should win: Hilary Swank

Best Supporting Actor
Who will win: Alan Alda
Who should win: Clive Owen

Best Supporting Actress
Who will win: Cate Blanchett
Who should win: Virginia Madsen

Best Original Screenplay
Who will win: John Logan, The Aviator (this will just be a laziness award)
Who should win: Charlie Kaufman, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Best Adapted Screenplay
Who will win: Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, Sideways (this will be the bone they throw)
Who should win: Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, Sideways

Best Cinematography
Who will win: The Aviator
Who should win: A Very Long Engagement (but Collateral really deserved to win-- even though it wasn't even nominated; criminal)

Best Animated Feature
Who will win: The Incredibles
Who should win: Anything Pixar does

Best Art Direction
Who will win: The Aviator
Who should win: A Very Long Engagement

Best Film Editing
Who will win: The Aviator
Who should win: Collateral

Happy hunting Sunday!
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